The EUR/USD pair spent Wednesday and Thursday under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.0196) on the hourly chart. For three weeks in a row, the pair was in horizontal movement, and only the US inflation report managed to influence it so that it moved to a sharp increase. However, in the next few days, there was a fall, and in the last two days, there was a horizontal movement inside the same side corridor, which many could already get used to. I recommend you immediately switch to a 4-hour schedule and look at this corridor. At least three rebounds from the level of 261.8% have been performed, and none of them led to a drop in quotes. Both yesterday and today, there was interesting news that traders ignored. On Wednesday, the European Union released data on GDP for the second quarter, according to which the economy grew by 0.6%. Today, the final inflation value for July was released, which showed an increase of 8.9%.

To some extent, traders were already familiar with these figures, so the lack of reaction is understandable. But then what explains the strong movement on Monday and Tuesday, when there was no information background? The logic of traders is as follows: if there is no news, we will actively trade; if there is news, we will wait. The same goes for yesterday's Fed minutes. Traders were familiar with most of the theses contained in it, but they did not "react weakly"; they "ignored." Thus, considering and analyzing yesterday's and today's data does not make much sense. It makes sense to fear that the pair will not resume their movement inside the side corridor. Otherwise, we will get "bumpy" for the next few weeks. Although there is no information background for the rest of Thursday and Friday, this may become a reason for traders to trade actively.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US currency and anchored under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.0173). The pair failed to consolidate over the descending trend corridor, so it continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish." Thus, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (0.9581), but this requires closing under the side corridor, which continues to be present on the chart. Emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Last reporting week, speculators opened 8,396 long contracts and 4,121 short contracts. It means that the "bearish" mood of the major players has become a little weaker, but it has remained. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators is now 200 thousand, and short contracts – 234 thousand. The difference between these figures is still not too big, but it remains not in favor of euro bulls. In the last few weeks, the chances of the euro currency's growth have been gradually increasing, but recent COT reports have shown no strong strengthening of the bulls' positions. The euro currency has not been able to show convincing growth in the last five weeks. Thus, it is still difficult for me to count on the strong growth of the euro currency. So far, I am inclined to continue the fall of the euro/dollar pair.

News calendar for the USA and the European Union:

EU – consumer price index (09:00 UTC).

US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).

On August 18, the calendars of economic events of the European Union and the United States contain one interesting entry each. Traders have already managed to ignore the inflation report, and the American report is unlikely to impact traders' moods.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:

I recommended new sales of the pair when anchoring under the 1.0196 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0080. Now, these deals can be held, but the pair can restore its movement inside the side corridor. I recommend buying the euro currency when fixing quotes above the descending corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0638.