empty
 
 
01.06.2023 09:15 AM
Hot forecast for EURUSD on June 1, 2023

So, the main event of today is the preliminary data on eurozone inflation, and according to forecasts, the pace of consumer price growth is expected to slow down from 7.0% to 6.5%. However, similar data for Germany and France were published yesterday, which caused the euro to fall. At least that was the case until the opening of the US trading session. The fact is that inflation in France slowed down from 5.9% to 5.1%, with a forecast of 5.7%, while in Germany, instead of falling from 7.2% to 6.7%, it dropped to 6.1%. Therefore, inflation in the entire euro area is likely to slow down even more. Consequently, the European Central Bank is expected to halt the process of raising interest rates in the near future.

However, after the opening of the US trading session, the euro was able to fully recover its losses, thanks to Federal Reserve representatives, who explicitly stated that the central bank is pausing the rate hike. They also added that this would mean reaching the peak level of interest rates, indicating a gradual easing of monetary policy.

But as mentioned earlier, inflation in Europe will slow down slightly faster than forecasts, and the euro will fall again. At the very least, it will fall to Wednesday's lows.

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair reached 1.0635 during the downward movement, triggering a technical signal of the euro being oversold in the short-term time frames.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI hit the 30 level, which became the starting point for reducing the volume of short positions on the euro.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, indicating a corrective trend.

Outlook

The downward cycle from the peak of the medium-term trend remains relevant in the market. For this reason, returning to the price low could potentially lead to a new wave of decline, disregarding the technical signals of an oversold euro. However, it is worth noting that the longer the market maintains its momentum, the less stable speculators become. Ultimately, this may lead to a sharp decline in the volume of short positions, which in turn will result in a price reversal.

The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods suggests a pullback, while indicators in the medium-term show the corrective move.

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $8000 more!
    In March we raffle $8000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback