The USD has lost its chance to stay higher and now is into agony. Today is crucial for the dollar as the US nonfarm payrolls will ruin it or will save it from the downtrend. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1371, it has reached another upside obstacle. The pair will take out it if the USDX drops further.

The Dollar Index free fall has pushed EUR/USD higher. I believe that only some better than expected US data could save the dollar. USDX is almost to reach the 96.36 static support, a valid breakdown will suggest the EUR/USD further increase, while a rejection will signal EUR/USD decrease.

The US NFP could come in around -7,750K, a better number will boost the dollar in the short term, the Average Hourly Earnings could increase by 1.0% in May, while the Unemployment Rate could climb to 19.4% as a COVID-19 pandemic effect.

EUR/USD has ignored the 1.1200, R1 (1.1243), and the upper median line (UML) obstacles and now has reached the R2 (1.1383) static resistance. A valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) and above the R2 (1.1383) could announce medium- to the long-term upside movement.

Still, today's candle could close in the red if the US data comes in better, so a false breakout above the upper median line (UML) will announce a potential leg lower in the short term.

EUR/USD is strongly bullish, the aggressive breakout from the extended sideways movement and above the median line (ML) has confirmed a strong increase. The reversal will be validated if EUR/USD stabilizes above the upper median line (UML).

Some poor US figures could send the price far above the 1.1494 higher high, towards the R3 (1.1622). Another higher high, a jump above 1.1494, will open the door for a long-term rally.

Only a false breakout above the upper median line (UML) and a quick drop below the R1 (1.1243) could save the dollar from a long downside run.

• EUR/USD Trading Tips

The pair is bullish and the outlook will remain bullish, even if we have a minor drop in the short term. If the breakout above the upper median line (UML) is validated, EUR/USD is expected to resume its rally and it could approach the R3 (1.1622) in the upcoming period. We may have a long opportunity if the price stabilizes above the broken upper median line (UML) and if it comes back to test and retest the broken dynamic resistance.

Technically, EUR/USD could register a correction after the amazing rally, so a rejection from the R2 (1.1383) and a false breakout above the upper median line (UML) will signal a bearish momentum. A pin bar or a bearish engulfing here in this resistance area will bring a short opportunity in the short term.

A reversal pattern here could announce another drop towards the 1.1 psychological level in the upcoming weeks. You should be careful today because the fundamentals will drive the pair.