USD/JPY

At the end of Wednesday, the US stock index S&P 500 fell by 0.18%, while the dollar index remained unchanged, which resulted in the growth of the USD/JPY pair by 0.12%. There is a weak dependence on the dollar, but the market has not yet received the resulting vector from today's important events: the European Central Bank meeting and the US inflation report. At the moment, the probability of price growth to 110.47 and decline to 108.35 has become the same.

As a result, if the price goes below the nearest level of 109.20, we are waiting for a further decline to 108.35, if the price goes up with the release of the US report, then the target of 110.47 will most likely be reached and it is possible that the price will settle above the upper border of the price channel (blue descending) with further growth towards 111.39 (October 2018 low).

The price is on the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is also on the zero line above. The situation is neutral with a slightly increased likelihood of growth (55%). We are waiting for the news release and watching the market reaction.