The EUR/USD pair traded along the corrective level of 261.8% (1.0196) again on Monday. For about a month, the pair's quotes have been trading mostly horizontally, which is clearly visible on the 4-hour chart. The movement continues strictly along the corrective level of 127.2% (1.0173). And at the beginning of the new week, the graphic picture did not suffer any changes. And why would these changes even be? There was no information background on Monday and Tuesday. There was also no news concerning geopolitics or politics. Thus, traders can only wait for the next important report on inflation in the US and hope that the horizontal movement will end there. But, from my point of view, the probability of this is 50-50. I drew two additional lines on the hourly chart forming a triangle. Fixing the pair's rate above or below will allow traders to count on movement in a certain direction.

However, even this triangle may not give direction to traders because there is a more important side corridor on the 4-hour chart, which I still decided to designate graphically. Thus, on any chart, we see obvious signs of a flat and unwillingness of traders to trade the pair actively. What will Wednesday change with just one US inflation report? The reaction of traders, of course, should be, but will it be enough for the quotes to leave the triangle and the side corridor? It seems to me that no, but everything will depend on the value of the inflation report. For the first time in a long time, traders can count on a slowdown in inflation in the US, as the Fed's interest rate has already risen to 2.5%. Market expectations are about 8.8% y/y. This is certainly not the biggest slowdown, but you must start at least with something. If the current forecasts are wrong and there is no slowdown, the dollar may go back into growth, as this will mean that the Fed will have to raise the rate by 0.75% in September.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to remain above the level of 127.2 (1.0173). Thus, the growth process can be resumed in the direction of the upper line of the descending trend corridor. However, I want to note that the level of 1.0173 is weak, and the pair regularly breaks it in both directions. I would now focus on the movement's very nature – horizontal, and on the side corridor. Fixing above the descending corridor will increase the probability of resuming growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.0638), but first, you need to leave the side corridor.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Last reporting week, speculators closed 6,349 long contracts and 9,122 short contracts. This means that the "bearish" mood of the major players has become a little weaker, but it has remained. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators now amounts to 191 thousand, and Short contracts – 230 thousand. The difference between these figures is still not too big, but it remains not in favor of euro bulls. In the last few weeks, the chances of the euro currency's growth have been gradually growing, but recent COT reports have shown no strong strengthening of the bulls' positions. The euro has failed to show convincing growth in the last four weeks. Thus, it is still difficult for me to count on the strong growth of the euro currency. So far, I am inclined to resume the fall of the euro-dollar pair.

News calendar for the USA and the European Union:

On August 9, the calendars of economic events of the European Union and the United States were empty. The influence of the information background on the mood of traders today will be absent.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:

I recommend new sales of the pair when rebounding from the upper line of the corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0173. I recommend buying the euro currency when fixing quotes above the descending corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.0638.